Balanced Housing Market?

The Headlines:

The Housing Market has changed.

What does this mean for you?  If you're buying or selling...

Balance is back.

Buyer Demand Then and Now

During the pandemic, mortgage rates hit record lows, and that spurred a significant rise in buyer demand. This year, as rates increased due to factors like rising inflation, buyer demand pulled back or softened as a result. The latest data from ShowingTime confirms this trend (see graph below):

The orange bars in the graph above represent the last few months of data and the clear cooldown in the volume of home showings the market has seen since mortgage rates started to rise. But context is important. To get the full picture of where today’s demand stands, let’s look at the July data for the past six years (see graph below):

This second visual makes it clear that, while moderating compared to the frenzy in 2020 and 2021, showing activity is still beating pre-pandemic levels – and those pre-pandemic years were great years for the housing market. That goes to show there’s still demand if you sell your house today.

What That Means for You When You Sell

The key to selling in a changing market is understanding where the housing market is now. It’s not the same market we had last year or even earlier this year, but that doesn’t mean the opportunity to sell has passed.

While things have cooled a bit, it’s still a sellers’ market. If you work with a trusted local expert to price your house at the current market value, the demand is still there, and it should sell quickly. According to a recent survey from realtor.com, 92% of homeowners who sold in August reported being satisfied with the outcome of their sale.

Bottom Line

Buyer demand hasn’t disappeared, it’s just moderated this year. If you’re ready to sell your house today, let’s connect so you have expert insights on how the market has shifted and how to plan accordingly for your sale.

For more information on local, Arizona home supply and any Real Estate related questions... contact Nicole at 480-993-8671.

** All data taken from ShowingTime, Realtors go-to app to set up appointments to view homes for sale 

The Drivers License

 THE HEADLINES:

THEN ONE DAY...

THEY DRIVE THEMSELVES.

Here's the funny thing about parenting... as you teach your kids... they teach you right back.  

Yep, it's happened.  My daughter gets her license.  Today.  It's a relief, it's terrifying, it's expensive, it's overwhelming, it's depressing, it's helpful... it's all the stuff.  And I'm having a bit of a nervous break down.  For many reasons.  This is very much the beginning of the end of her being our baby, in our house, under our roof, family of four.  

I'm pretty convinced the drivers license is designed to help prepare parents for what's to come.   They get that license, start moving around without you being there, they come and go as they please, until one day they go off to college.  Then they come home for Christmas, Spring break and Summer.  But after that, you barely see them. Unless you take them on some amazing trip.  Uh-huh. 

How do I know this?  Because I did it.  Think about it.   Bet you did too!  And this... is why I'm so sad about today.  Because part of my life is now over forever.  There's no going back.  Yesterday, for the first time, I watched baby videos of my little girl.  We have never done that.  I bawled.  I had to stop watching.  For a brief moment, it took me back... and I wanted to stay there.  I truly wanted to dive into that video and just "be" for a bit.  Such a beautifully, exhausting, messy moment in time that I want to go back into now.  If only...  

Instead, I have to embrace today.   

Today means, from here on out, she will go places and we will remain.  Here.  She can now go get that birthday present for her friend.  She can pick up her brother from baseball practice.  She can grab dinner on the way home.  She can drive to her job.  All of it, she can do, on her own.  There's no going back. Only looking forward.  

Is that a problem?  Not for her.  But for me it is - a little problematic.  You see, when they're in your car you have a captive audience.  They have to listen to you.  They can try to shut you out but really that's not possible.  This is the case every morning - when I take my kids to school.  For about 15-25 minutes (depending on the school and child), I get to deliver my own lesson plan.  I spout off things I read in my latest book or heard at a bible study.  I get to teach.  And they listen. It is when we do some of our best chatting.  I love it and I now crave it because it will, mostly, go away.  And that is painful.  It's treacherous really.  But it, once again, reminds me that I am still growing up with her.  There are still lessons to be learned here.  There will be plenty more.  Especially because, we never really stop learning unless we choose to stop.  Something we should never do by the way.  Once we choose to stop growing we may as well lay down and have someone throw dirt on us.  Cause it's over.  

I have to remind myself, the relationship between myself and my daughter is not over.  It is, however, morphing into a new stage.  A different stage.  A stage where trust becomes paramount and guidance takes the place of telling.  My child needs to know this is now up to her.  Mom and Dad will always catch her but now she has to throw the ball.  She has to determine where that ball is going and who she's chucking it toward...  Yes, now is the time to make her own way.  With God, myself and her Father by her side... while sitting back watching and learning.

As she starts to drive - I am not worried about her getting in trouble, buying too many coffees, coming home late, getting in an accident (well, yes, I'm worried about that one), eating too much fast food, driving too fast (ok maybe a little)... I am worried about something far more simple.  

Where did my little girl go?  Because it seems like she's gone.  

And the cold, harsh reality is... I already miss her.  

  

Rollercoaster Real Estate?

The Headlines:  

As a Realtor, people always ask "where is the market going to go"?

My answer is usually:  I don't have a crystal ball.  

 But... 

Think Home Prices Are Going To Fall? Think Again

Over the last two years, the rate of home prices appreciated at a dramatic pace. While that led to incredible equity gains for homeowners, it’s also caused some buyers to wonder if home prices will fall. It’s important to know the housing market isn’t a bubble about to burst, and home price growth is supported by strong market fundamentals.

To understand why price declines are unlikely, it’s important to explore what caused home prices to rise so much recently, and where experts say home prices are headed. Here’s what you need to know.

Home Prices Rose Significantly in Recent Years

The graph below uses the latest data from CoreLogic to illustrate the rise in home prices over the past year and a half. The gray bars represent the dramatic increase in the rate of home price appreciation in 2021. The blue bars show home prices are still rising in 2022, but not as quickly:

You might be asking: why did home prices climb so much last year? It’s because there were more buyers than there were homes for sale. That imbalance put upward pressure on home prices because demand was extremely high, and supply was record low.

Where Experts Say Prices Will Go from Here

While housing inventory is increasing and buyer demand is softening today, there’s still a shortage of homes available for sale. That’s why the market is seeing ongoing price appreciation. Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, explains it like this:

“. . .we’re still well below normal levels of inventory and that’s why even with the pullback in demand, we still see house prices appreciating. While there is more inventory, it’s still not enough.”

As a result, experts are projecting a more moderate rate of home price appreciation this year, which means home prices will continue rising, but at a slower pace. That doesn’t mean prices are going to fall. As Selma Hepp, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says:

“The current home price growth rate is unsustainable, and higher mortgage rates coupled with more inventory will lead to slower home price growth but unlikely declines in home prices.”

In other words, even with higher mortgage rates, moderating buyer demand, and more homes for sale, experts say home price appreciation will slow, but prices won't decline.

If you’re planning to buy a home, that means you shouldn’t wait for home prices to drop to make your purchase. Instead, buying today means you can get ahead of future price increases, and benefit from the rise in prices in the form of home equity.

Bottom Line

Home prices skyrocketed in recent years because there was more demand than supply. As the market shifts, experts aren’t forecasting a drop in prices, just a slowdown in the rate of price growth. To understand what’s happening with home prices in our area, or if you want to buy or sell this year, connect with me today.

Showing God

 The Headlines:

God is working for you.

Are you working for him?

And... can people tell?

I have long been a Christian.  My Grandfather was a Lutheran Minister and growing up my family and I went to church every Sunday. I have always had a close relationship with God.  I pray and talk to him all the time.  I know bible stories galore and am very secure with and in my Christianity.  I rely on it everyday.

So, one day, back when I worked for the local NBC station in Phoenix, Arizona... something shocking happened.  As I was chatting and getting ready for air, I said something to my anchor at the time... when she looked at me quizzically and said, "wait, you're a Christian?"  Ohhhhhhhhh boy.  I was paralyzed.  Embarrassed.   Kinda Sickened.  "Of course,"  I replied, "it's like, the most important thing to me!"  

How did she not know that?    

HIDING GOD?

Cleary, it didn't seem to be.  Apparently, I wasn't showing God.  I wasn't talking about him.  I wasn't acting on him.  He was hidden.  Yet... he was truly the most important thing to me.  How could that be?  It was shameful.  If something is important to you, you show it.  People know.  

I'm reading a book right now, "Elijah"  by Priscilla Shirer.   In it Shirer contends what you do, how you spend your time, money, efforts... is what you, in a sense, worship.  It's like your God.  Gulp.   Think about that one.  

What do people know about you?  What do you show?  What is important?  

For instance, if you're at dinner and you dip out to the restroom... does your bestie know what to order you?  I bet she does.  If you're single and you like guys with red hair....  are your girlfriends looking for carrot topped men for you?  Probably.  If you dream to be a professional golfer - do people know where you'll be on a beautiful (not windy) morning in Scottsdale?  Of course.  Because you show all those things.  

That Anchor friend of mine knew I liked fine dinners, fine wine and fine facials.  But she had no idea that my biggest "find" had nothing to do with the finer things in life.  It had everything to do with My God.  But I needed to show it.  And fast.  Now, no, I didn't go on Television that morning declaring to all, "In Phoenix, Nicole McGregor, I'm a Christian.... 12 News" but it did change me.  From that point forward, I was keenly aware that I needed to TALK my WALK.  

TAKE 2

*As the years passed I became a Mom.  This is when you really get a chance to talk and walk with God.  In fact, I've noticed it's at this time when many are brought closer toward God.  Through their children.  There are opportunities like Pre-School, Sunday School or camps.  You never realize this when you're a child yourself.  But turns out when you're a kid - people throw lots of opportunities at you.  They want to create environments where the child can learn and grow.  

Those opportunities tend to dry up as we age (like everything else).  Until all of the sudden you look around and see absolutely no opportunities that you don't make for yourself.  Feel me?  So, unbeknownst to us (at the time), children need to seize these amazing chances at lasso-ing something special.  Like drawing, like building, like... God.*  

Parents are lucky too because they can piggyback on what their kids are being exposed to...  including God.  Some don't need an introduction to God but they might need to get reacquainted with him.  Maybe we all need that actually.  My children of course were baptized.  We pledged to make God a center of our lives for not only ourselves but our children.  I was Mary and BP was Joseph at church on Christmas when our daughter was just a few months old.  They both went to a Christian Pre-School.  My daughter goes to a Christian (Catholic) High School.  We go to church as much as our schedules allow.  I try to read Christian books and attend bible studies.  I make it one of my priorities.  It's still not enough.  It probably never will be and I'm okay with that.  What I'm not okay with is someone looking at me, shockingly, and saying "you're a Christian?"  No, please, never ever again.  

I want to make sure people know that my God is more important than my Gucci.  I do not want there to be any question about that.  I don't worship people, planes or purses.  Only him.  I hope my actions and words show God everyday.  And most importantly, I need this to trickle down... to those little people who I'm in charge of making big Christians.  

I think it's working.  Here's why.

SHOWING GOD 

Almost every night I take my son to bed.  We talk, pray, sing, sometimes I cry (ok, I cry a lot).  It is a special time.  On this occasion, my son was about to embark upon a baseball tournament.  We, as per usual, started to pray but while I typically lead it... this night , I asked him to do it.  "You can use the extra prayers, maybe you should request strength this weekend."  He had been a little under the weather.  He prayed.  The next day,  the team played great.  He, in particular had a really good game.  So when we came back that night for prayer I suggested he may want to do the honors again.  And after yet another day of amazing play - it came time to pray.  This, you see, was a 3 day tournament.  The first we've ever had.  But this time, before prayer, I asked him: "Hey, who are you playing baseball for?"  He thought about this for a while.  A good 30 seconds.  He answered: "me..."  "Oh," I said, 

"what if you started playing for God?"  

He wasn't baffled.  Instead he looked at me and said... "that's what I was gonna say!"  I asked if maybe, when he stepped onto the field... if he should give it to him?  

Give God the glory.  

Play ball in his honor.  All the time.  I told him he didn't have to point to heaven when he ran over home plate.  He didn't have to make the sign of the cross over his chest when he got a good hit.  I didn't want him, in any way, to act like the pro's do.  He just had to be himself.  Do what he thought right.  I encouraged saying a prayer before or as he took the field.  I didn't explain exactly when or how to do this... I figured he could work that out.

The next day my son's team played ball again.  They won two more games.  They went all the way to the last game.  The Championship.  I didn't know what unfolded at the time, but was told later.  

Before that last game my son, #3, (for yes... all the reasons why you can imagine and more) PRAYED.  

He got on his knees in the dug out, leaned on that long bench, humbled himself before our Lord... and he started to pray.  That 10 year old little guy prayed in front of all of his team mates.  By himself.  But not for long.  Soon, one little boy asked him what he was doing and when he told him he joined.  Then there were two.  Until another little boy asked them what they were up to and he kneeled beside them both.  From what I was told, it wasn't much later that all of those kids were alongside each other praying before that game.  Showing God.

Wow.

My little man, bravely did what, apparently, I couldn't do all those years earlier.  He Showed God.  Boldly, unapologetically, perfectly.   I was proud.  Not for the baseball game.  Oh no, they lost that one.  Two to zilch.  Even after all those little prayers. 

HE'S GOT YOU

But that's how God works.

Sure, it would have been even better if they had won the game.  Or maybe not.  Because that's not always how life goes.  Just because you ask for something... doesn't mean you get it.  In fact, often times you don't.  I know you know that.  But I think, no matter what the score board said,  those boys won that day.  They won something way bigger than the first place ring.  They hit a homer out of the park when they kneeled before him.  When they Showed up for God.  Showed the world, or at least our little part of it, that he's there, everywhere, all the time.  They showed he's in charge.  Even during a kids baseball  game.  It's amazing how so many of us rely, solely, on ourselves.  Like, we got this... when we don't.  He's got it.  He empowers US to go get it.  

STEP AND REPEAT 

If you've read this far I think you're into this.  So do me a favor and go back up and read the paragraph that's starred under TAKE TWO.  Then come back and meet me right here.

Did you read it again?  Okay so now...

Create YOUR opportunity to Show God.  You're not 5 anymore, no one's reading you bible stories or taking your hand and helping you cross the street.   You have to do it.  And see, God needs you to... heck the world needs you to do this right now.  There's a lot of people out there NOT Showing God but we can change that.  It just takes you.  

I hope my son understands that now.  Or at least is starting to... may that never change when he's angry, or sick, or hurt... or lost.  Because he will lose more baseball games even when he's Showing God.  We all will suffer from time to time, some more than others... even though we're showing up.  But that doesn't mean we stop.  

Naaaaaah... that's when we lean in more.  And more.  

Finally tonight, when I was in my 20's my Mom got me one of my favorites gifts.  In the eyes of the world, sadly, it wouldn't be much.  But to me... it meant everything.  It was a simple wood frame with words underneath the glass.  It said:

Nicole,

Trust me.

I have everything under control.

Jesus

Wow.  And all I had to do... was show up.